Monday, February 04, 2013

January Poll February Poll

January's poll was a total bust, well almost.  There was one vote only a couple of days before the poll closed.  Someone voted that they would like to go back to  more than a 1000 years ago if they could.  I don't know when exactly or why.

That was disappointing to say the least.

So now it's February and I have a new poll.

I recently listened to a podcast that included an interview with Alfred McCoy the author of Four Scenarios For The Coming Collapse of The American Empire.  Although I don't like to get political and I don't consider the USA to be or have an, "empire" as a (somewhat aspiring) Science Fiction author I am always interested in the future.

After listening to this I have been seeing signs of the predicted collapse and the failure of the lights at last night's Super Bowl was just another indication to me that the USA is indeed faltering.

There are other articles like thisthis and this that talk about the USA falling from superpower status.  The NSA has agreed with Mr. McCoy that the final collapse will occur between 2025 and 2030.

I always knew that all governments eventually fail, but until listening and reading this material I really didn't think it would happen in my lifetime.  Now I'm fairly convinced that 2025 is probably a good guess.

Here are the  four possible outcomes of the USA falling from superpower status given in US Intelligence Analysts: American Power is in Terminal Decline:
(numbered bullets mine)
  1. "...the US would withdraw inward, allowing globalization to “stall.” "
  2. "...“fusion” and describe as the “most plausible best-case scenario,” would see an increasingly economically dominant and militarily powerful China joining in an era of cooperation with the US."
  3. "a “genie-out-of-the-bottle” world in which growing inequality leads to explosions in many nations, while climate-change and population-pressure driven shortages of water, food and energy, lead to increasing international conflicts, with the US no longer able to act in the role of “international policeman.”"
  4. "a weakening of nation states, as new technologies allow non-state actors, such as mega cities and shifting coalitions of non-state actors, to become leaders"
I think the best possible scenario is that nation-states evolve into something more peaceful and stable.  I wouldn't mind the collapse so much if that is what will rise from the ashes.  I'm not convinced it will, but I'm a hopeful person.

The question for my poll this month is this:  When do you think the USA will slip from superpower status: in the next 15 years (by 2028); by mid-century (2050); within this century (2001-2100); sometime after the 21st century; or never.

Remember I'm not talking about the USA going away, we still have Britain, but it is no longer the preeminent nation it was in the Victorian era.  That's the kind of collapse and new status I'm talking about.

Please discuss here.

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